MD Tournament Predictions - updated 3/6/19

MPSSAA Section Standings - Updated on 3/6/19
All MCPS schools are placed into an MPSSAA region for the state tournament, and all regions are divided into two sections.  The MCPS schools are spread across five different sections.  The teams' win percentage (not including December holiday tournaments) is used to seed the teams, regardless of what county they may reside.

4A West Region Section 1 Standings
1. Churchill - 95.00% (19-1)
2. Whitman - 85.00% (17-3)
3. BCC - 66.67% (14-7)
4. WJ - 61.90% (13-8)
5. Einstein - 45.00% (9-11)
6. Kennedy - 4.76% (1-20)
7. Wheaton - 4.76% (1-20)

Churchill is the favorite in the section and the region. They have beaten the top two seeds in 4A North Section 2 (Sherwood and Paint Branch), the co-#3 seed in 2A West Section 1, and the #2 seed in 4A West Section 2, in addition to defeating Whitman once and BCC twice within their own section. Whitman looks like the only team that has a chance of pulling the upset, but Whitman will likely have to defeat neighborhood rival BCC for a third time this year, never an easy task. Don't underestimate WJ who pushed Churchill during the regular season. A Whitman at Churchill final will be captivating theater as each look to avenge a loss to each other.

UPDATE ON 3/6:
Congratulations to BCC who got some revenge on Whitman after being swept in the regular season. The Barons outplayed the Vikings last night and got a well deserved victory over the #2 team in Montgomery County. Their reward, playing the #1 team in Montgomery County. Churchill beat BCC during the regular season, but these BCC upperclassmen know what it is like to win a region title and they will not go quietly. Ultimately, Churchill is too strong and will get the win.

4A West Section 1 Playoff matchups on Thursday, March 7
7:00 pm
#3 BCC at #1 Churchill

1ST ROUND PREDICTIONS
#2 Whitman defeats #7 Wheaton - 65-23 Actual score 78-13
#3 BCC defeats #6 Kennedy - 61-25 Actual score 56-21
#4 WJ defeats #5 Einstein - 56-51 Actual score 52-39

SEMI-FINAL PREDICTIONS
#1 Churchill defeats #4 WJ - 57-48  Actual score 64-46
#2 Whitman defeats #7 BCC - 50-41 Actual score 35-56 - BCC wins!

SECTION FINAL PREDICTION
#1 Churchill defeats #2 Whitman #3 BCC - 56-44

4A West Region Section 2 Standings
1. Clarksburg - 75.00% (15-5)
2. Quince Orchard - 70.00% (14-6)
3. Richard Montgomery - 57.14% (12-9)
4. Gaithersburg - 52.38% (11-10)
5. Northwest - 28.47% (6-15)
6. Wootton - 4.76% (1-20)

While Clarksburg clinched the division championship that involved these same six teams, this section is fairly wide open. Clarksburg beat QO by 21 but struggled in two wins to close out Gaithersburg (a combined 6 points) and lost to Richard Montgomery. RM has struggled to score while playing many of the top teams in MCPS down the stretch which included a 4 game losing streak before edging Seneca Valley by a point. Expect RM and Gaithersburg to win their first-round games, but RM needs to find offense or they will have problems pulling away.  Quince Orchard handled RM easily during the regular season and will do so again in the postseason in a rematch from last year. Watch for Gaithersburg to pull the upset at Clarksburg in the semi-finals.

UPDATE ON 3/6:

Congratulations to Richard Montgomery on proving us wrong!  They lost to QO by 32 during the season and flipped the script to win by two on Tuesday night.  4A West Division Player of the Year Anujin Dashdorj had 22 points, Calie Dunn added 12 and Nailah Lewis added 10 while also controlling their offense from the high post.  Credit to coach Mike Oakes who had his team ready to go and guided them back to the section final for the second consecutive year.  The finals are a toss up. Clarksburg finished 7-1 during division play and RM finished behind them at 6-2, but one of RM's wins was Clarksburg's only loss. Expect scoring to be at a premium. While Clarksburg averages 58 points per game, RM held them to their second lowest total of the year when they won 52-47. If RM can hold them to around 50, they have a really good shot at winning the game.

4A West Section 2 Playoff matchups on Thursday, March 7th
7:00 pm
#3 Richard Montgomery at #1 Clarksburg

1ST ROUND PREDICTIONS
#3 Richard Montgomery defeats #6 Wootton - 49-43 Actual score 57-53
#4 Gaithersburg defeats #5 Northwest - 52-25 Actual score 50-45

SEMI-FINAL PREDICTIONS
#4 Gaithersburg defeats #1 Clarksburg - 56-55 Actual score 48-65 - Clarksburg Wins!
#2 Quince Orchard defeats #3 Richard Montgomery - 55-42 Actual score 44-46 - RM Wins!

SECTION FINALS
#2 Quince Orchard vs #4 Gaithersburg
#1 Clarksburg defeats #3 Richard Montgomery - 55-51

4A North Region Section 2 Standings
1. Sherwood - 85.00% (17-3)
2. Paint Branch - 85.00% (17-3)
3. Urbana - 42.86% (9-12)
4. Blair - 40.00% (8-12)
5. Springbrook - 33.33% (7-14)
6. Northwood - 33.33% (7-14)

And the winner of the coin flip is Sherwood! The Warriors will have the #1 seed.

The coin flip will be Tuesday.

This section is all about Paint Branch and Sherwood. They shared the division championship and split their head to head matchups. The coin flip is crucial, not only to host a potential championship matchup but also avoiding Urbana. Paint Branch and Sherwood have both played, and swept, Blair, Springbrook, and Northwood by a combined 8-0. While Sherwood and Paint Branch have the same records, they are very different teams. Sherwood is very young and has played 8 games settled by less than 10 points (for an average point differential of 9.7 points), while Paint Branch is experienced and has won their games by an average of 31.7 points.  The third matchup between these two teams would be an exciting matchup, however, do not underestimate Urbana who recently upset Walkersville, and beat Damascus earlier in the year. Damascus just beat Paint Branch last week.  In addition, Blair and Springbrook have both played Sherwood to games within six points.

UPDATE ON 3/6:
Blair pulled the upset of the night on Tuesday! They rallied from down 8 to beat Sherwood (who swept Blair during the season) by 2. Blair hit 4 3-pointers down the stretch to key the win and now coach Amy Ferguson will face her old coach, Heather Podosek, who has taken over the Paint Branch program for the remainder of the year. Paint Branch beat Blair handedly during the season and is a heavy favorite. Blair needs to keep the game in the 40's to low 50's to have a shot.

4A North Section 2 Playoff matchups on Tuesday, March 5
6:00 pm
#4 Blair at #2 Paint Branch

1ST ROUND PREDICTIONS
#3 Urbana defeats #6 Northwood - 53-45 Actual score 68-34
#4 Blair defeats #5 Springbrook - 51-43 Actual score 64-52

SEMI-FINAL PREDICTIONS
#1 Sherwood defeats #4 Blair - 57-51 Actual score 48-50 - Blair wins!
#2 Paint Branch defeats #3 Urbana - 61-47 Actual score 58-47

SECTION FINALS
#1 Sherwood vs #2 Paint Branch defeats #4 Blair - 62-39

3A West Section 1 Standings
1. Westminster - 75.00% (15-5)
2. Rockville - 60.00% (12-8)
3. Manchester Valley - 42.86% (9-12)
4. Blake - 33.33% (7-13)
5. Watkins Mill - 33.33% (7-14)
6. Magruder - 0% (0-21)

The section championship goes through Carroll County. Westminster has a very good team and will host the section finals, adding travel to the difficulties facing Montgomery County teams.  Westminster should have no problems against Blake or Watkins Mill.  Rockville has been a big surprise in MCPS play, including a big win over Damascus and a season sweep of neighbor Richard Montgomery.  The Rams will have a tough semi-final matchup with always tough Manchester Valley but should pull out a close one down here in Montgomery County. Unfortunately, after that, Rockville will have to head up to Carroll County...

UPDATE ON 3/6:

The top two seeds rolled and the championship still goes through Carroll County. If this game were in Rockville, Rockville might be the favorite, but up in Westminster, the advantage has to go to Westminster in a low scoring game.

3A West Section 1 Playoff matchups on Tuesday, March 5
6:30 pm
#2 Rockville at #4 Westminster

1ST ROUND PREDICTIONS
#3 Manchester Valley defeats #6 Magruder - 53-15 Actual score 69-14
#5 Watkins Mill defeats #4 Blake - 39-36 Actual score 49-42

SEMI-FINAL PREDICTIONS
#1 Westminster defeats #5 Watkins Mill - 54-31 Actual score 47-27
#2 Rockville defeats #3 Manchester Valley - 52-47 Actual score 49-31

SECTION FINALS
#1 Westminster defeats #2 Rockville - 49-45

2A West Section 2 Standings
1. Middletown - 87.51% (18-3)
2. Poolesville - 85.00% (17-3)
3. Damascus - 70.00% (14-6)
4. Walkersville - 70.00% (14-6)
5. Williamsport - 50.00% (10-10)
6. Seneca Valley - 50.00% (10-10)

This gets the vote for the MOST COMPETITIVE section in MPSSAA this year.

After two coin flips, we have the matchups for the 1st round. The coin flips split this division at the Montgomery County border as Poolesville, Damascus, and Seneca Valley make up 1/2 of the division and Middletown, Walkersville, and Williamsport make up the other half.

All the first round games and potential second-round matchups are rematches from earlier this year. Walkersville and Williamsport have played each other twice already. Walkersville won by 5 at Williamsport and by 17 at home.  No upset on Friday night either as Walkersville moves on to face Middletown for the third time this year. Middletown beat Walkersville by 4 on the road, but by 14 at home. Expect home court and experience to be the advantage again as Middletown returns to the section finals.

Last year, Middletown was Poolesville toughest opponent on their way to the 2A State Championship. Expect another rematch in the section finals this year, but not before Poolesville gets pushed during their third "rubber" match with Damascus.  Damascus should beat Seneca Valley, ending a great first year on the sidelines for SV coach Ali Hashemzadeh. Damascus plays hard all the time and has exceeded most expectations this year, but their wonderful season will come to a close on the road in the small Poolesville gym.

UPDATE ON 3/6:
In the "toughest section" in MPSSAA, the top seeds held serve. In the northern bracket, Middletown beat Walkersville for the third time this year and earned a rematch with Poolesville who defeated the Knights in Poolesville last year on the way to their state title.  However, this time the Falcons have to head north and the home court will give Middletown the slight edge.  The Knights beat the Falcons 50-42 in a holiday tournament back in December.

2A West Section 2 Playoff matchups on Thursday, March 7th
6:00 pm
#2 Poolesville at #1 Middletown

1ST ROUND PREDICTIONS
#3 Damascus vs #6 Seneca Valley - 61-42 Actual score 75-61
#4 Walkersville defeats #5 Williamsport - 40-31 Actual score 35-22

SEMI-FINAL PREDICTIONS
#1 Middletown defeats #4 Walkersville - 52-43 Actual score 43-38
#2 Poolesville defeats #3 Damascus - 50-42 Actual score 36-29

SECTION FINALS
#1 Middletown defeats #2 Poolesville - 45-42