MD Tournament Region Final Predictions for MCPS schools
MPSSAA MD Region Final Predictions - Updated on 3/6/19
All MCPS schools are placed into an MPSSAA region for the state tournament, and all regions are divided into two sections. The MCPS schools are spread across five different sections. The teams' win percentage (not including December holiday tournaments) is used to seed the teams, regardless of what county they may reside.
4A West Region Final on Saturday, March 9
3:00 pm at Richard Montgomery HS
#3 BCC vs #1 Clarksburg
Clarksburg has the better record at 19-5 compared to BCC's 17-8, however we believe that BCC should be favored in this game.
HOW CLARKSBURG EARNED THEIR TRIP DOWN 355 TO RM...
Clarksburg started out 16-2 with losses to a top Sherwood team and Richard Montgomery, however, then their schedule turned more difficult. They lose 3 out of their last 4 in the regular season, losing to Damascus, Poolesville, and Paint Branch. They averaged 59 points in the regular season, but failed to score more than 56 in those loses. None of those loses would be considered a "bad loss", but they also failed in opportunities to get a "quality win." Their best wins in the regular season were their season opening victory over Damascus, a 20 point win over QO, and two close wins (combined 6 points) over a Gaithersburg team that struggled to a 13-11 record this year.
Clarksburg had a first round bye as the top seed in Section 2 of 4A West. They finished the sweep of Gaithersburg, which earned them the opportunity to get a rematch with RM. While RM had flipped the script on QO in the Section Semi-finals from a 30 point loss to a 2 point win, Clarksburg took advantage of their opportunity for a little "payback" and avenged a 5 point loss to RM during the regular season. Clarksburg held off RM 46-45 behind the balanced attack of Kaleah Boykin (12 points), Sienna Williams (10 points), Denise Ventura (10 points) and Mia Smith (10 points).
HOW BCC EARNED THEIR TRIP UP 355 TO RM...
The Barons never went more than 3 games without playing really good competition. They played the toughest schedule among MCPS teams (opponents winning percentage was over 60%) while Clarksburg's schedule ranked 21st among MCPS teams (opponents winning percentage was 46%). BCC's eight losses included two each to the top two teams in our Top 10 poll (Whitman and Churchill), one to Walkersville who finished 3rd in a very deep 2A West Section 2, one each to Sherwood and Paint Branch who were the top two seeds in 2A North Section 2, and finally one to Bullis from the ISL. Like Clarksburg, BCC defeated Gaithersburg and QO, but they also had a really good win over Poolesville, albeit in the second game of the season.
Going into the playoffs, BCC and Clarksburg seemed to have similar resumes, both good teams who did not have any bad loses but also who struggled to get any wins against the top teams in the county. However, this changed for BCC in the postseason. Give BCC and coach Ryan Ingalls a lot of credit! They eliminated the #2 and #1 seeds in 4A West Section 1, who also happen to be our top ranked teams in #MoCoGBB. After losing twice to Whitman in the regular season, they traveled across Bethesda to knock of the Vikings by 20. Then, they headed to Potomac to face a Churchill team that had dominated MCPS competition this year, including beating BCC twice handedly early in the year. BCC jumped out to a 16 point second half lead, before Churchill roared back in the 4th quarter. An offensive rebound put back and foul give the Bulldogs the three point play to tie the game and send it into overtime. After Churchill took a quick two point OT lead, BCC scored jumped up 4 before a Kaila Wilson three-pointer cut it to one. The Bulldogs would get one last chance as Brittini Martin missed a difficult drive that fell off the rim with a few seconds left and Churchill could not get one more shot off from the offensive rebound. BCC knocked off two teams that were a combined 42-4.
PREDICTION
Both of these teams are very similar. Both are powered by underclassmen as BCC's top three players are all sophomores, including 4A South All-Division players Caroline Orza (1st team) and Ava Haraldsson (2nd team). Clarksburg is led by star freshman point guard Mia Smith (1st team), junior Miki Howson (1st team) and sophomore Kaleah Boykin (2nd team) who were All-Division in 4A West. Both teams knocked off their respective players of the year in the section finals. Ultimately, however, BCC's run defeating Whitman and Churchill back to back is as impressive as any in the postseason in a number of years. BCC has done a really great job on defense in the playoffs and that is the difference.
BCC defeats Clarksburg 55-50
4A West Region Section 1 Standings
1. Churchill - 95.00% (19-1)
2. Whitman - 85.00% (17-3)
3. BCC - 66.67% (14-7)
4. WJ - 61.90% (13-8)
5. Einstein - 45.00% (9-11)
6. Kennedy - 4.76% (1-20)
7. Wheaton - 4.76% (1-20)
SECTION FINAL RESULT: BCC defeats Churchill 58-57 in OT
4A West Region Section 2 Standings
1. Clarksburg - 75.00% (15-5)
2. Quince Orchard - 70.00% (14-6)
3. Richard Montgomery - 57.14% (12-9)
4. Gaithersburg - 52.38% (11-10)
5. Northwest - 28.47% (6-15)
6. Wootton - 4.76% (1-20)
SECTION FINAL RESULT: Clarksburg defeats RM 46-45
4A North Region Final on Saturday, March 9
4A North Region Section 2 Standings
1. Sherwood - 85.00% (17-3)
2. Paint Branch - 85.00% (17-3)
3. Urbana - 42.86% (9-12)
4. Blair - 40.00% (8-12)
5. Springbrook - 33.33% (7-14)
6. Northwood - 33.33% (7-14)
SECTION FINAL RESULT: Paint Branch defeats Blair 73-38
3A West Section 1 Standings
1. Westminster - 75.00% (15-5)
2. Rockville - 60.00% (12-8)
3. Manchester Valley - 42.86% (9-12)
4. Blake - 33.33% (7-13)
5. Watkins Mill - 33.33% (7-14)
6. Magruder - 0% (0-21)
Rockville's magical season came to an end in Carroll County. The Rams stayed within 10 of a excellent team before having to foul at the end. Rockville's top players are all underclassmen and they have a bright future with Coach Gretchen Gregg.
PREDICTION: Frederick is one of the top teams in the state, regardless of classification, and the top team in 3A West. They host the region final and will defeat Westminster by at least 15.
2A West Section 2 Standings
1. Middletown - 90.90% (20-2)
2. Poolesville - 85.00% (17-3)
3. Damascus - 68.18% (15-7)
4. Walkersville - 68.18% (15-7)
5. Williamsport -- 47.62% (10-11)
6. Seneca Valley - 47.62% (10-11)
SECTION FINAL RESULT: Middletown defeats Poolesville 44-32
Give a lot of credit to Middletown, who emerged from one of the toughest sections in MPSSAA. Middletown defeated a very good Walkersville team for the 3rd time and then knocked off defending 2A State Champion Poolesville, earning a little payback for their loss to Poolesville in the section final last year. Middletown earned the right to play Oakdale, the other top team in Frederick County, for the 2A West Region title. Both of these teams are very familiar with each other as Middletown beat Oakdale by 19 points at Middletown, and then Oakdale returned the favor to defeat Middletown by 1 at home. Since both teams have the same record, there was a coin flip which determined that Oakdale will host the region final on Saturday night at 7 pm.
PREDICTION: Middletown defeats Oakdale 55-52
All MCPS schools are placed into an MPSSAA region for the state tournament, and all regions are divided into two sections. The MCPS schools are spread across five different sections. The teams' win percentage (not including December holiday tournaments) is used to seed the teams, regardless of what county they may reside.
4A West Region Final on Saturday, March 9
3:00 pm at Richard Montgomery HS
#3 BCC vs #1 Clarksburg
Clarksburg has the better record at 19-5 compared to BCC's 17-8, however we believe that BCC should be favored in this game.
HOW CLARKSBURG EARNED THEIR TRIP DOWN 355 TO RM...
Clarksburg started out 16-2 with losses to a top Sherwood team and Richard Montgomery, however, then their schedule turned more difficult. They lose 3 out of their last 4 in the regular season, losing to Damascus, Poolesville, and Paint Branch. They averaged 59 points in the regular season, but failed to score more than 56 in those loses. None of those loses would be considered a "bad loss", but they also failed in opportunities to get a "quality win." Their best wins in the regular season were their season opening victory over Damascus, a 20 point win over QO, and two close wins (combined 6 points) over a Gaithersburg team that struggled to a 13-11 record this year.
Clarksburg had a first round bye as the top seed in Section 2 of 4A West. They finished the sweep of Gaithersburg, which earned them the opportunity to get a rematch with RM. While RM had flipped the script on QO in the Section Semi-finals from a 30 point loss to a 2 point win, Clarksburg took advantage of their opportunity for a little "payback" and avenged a 5 point loss to RM during the regular season. Clarksburg held off RM 46-45 behind the balanced attack of Kaleah Boykin (12 points), Sienna Williams (10 points), Denise Ventura (10 points) and Mia Smith (10 points).
HOW BCC EARNED THEIR TRIP UP 355 TO RM...
The Barons never went more than 3 games without playing really good competition. They played the toughest schedule among MCPS teams (opponents winning percentage was over 60%) while Clarksburg's schedule ranked 21st among MCPS teams (opponents winning percentage was 46%). BCC's eight losses included two each to the top two teams in our Top 10 poll (Whitman and Churchill), one to Walkersville who finished 3rd in a very deep 2A West Section 2, one each to Sherwood and Paint Branch who were the top two seeds in 2A North Section 2, and finally one to Bullis from the ISL. Like Clarksburg, BCC defeated Gaithersburg and QO, but they also had a really good win over Poolesville, albeit in the second game of the season.
Going into the playoffs, BCC and Clarksburg seemed to have similar resumes, both good teams who did not have any bad loses but also who struggled to get any wins against the top teams in the county. However, this changed for BCC in the postseason. Give BCC and coach Ryan Ingalls a lot of credit! They eliminated the #2 and #1 seeds in 4A West Section 1, who also happen to be our top ranked teams in #MoCoGBB. After losing twice to Whitman in the regular season, they traveled across Bethesda to knock of the Vikings by 20. Then, they headed to Potomac to face a Churchill team that had dominated MCPS competition this year, including beating BCC twice handedly early in the year. BCC jumped out to a 16 point second half lead, before Churchill roared back in the 4th quarter. An offensive rebound put back and foul give the Bulldogs the three point play to tie the game and send it into overtime. After Churchill took a quick two point OT lead, BCC scored jumped up 4 before a Kaila Wilson three-pointer cut it to one. The Bulldogs would get one last chance as Brittini Martin missed a difficult drive that fell off the rim with a few seconds left and Churchill could not get one more shot off from the offensive rebound. BCC knocked off two teams that were a combined 42-4.
PREDICTION
Both of these teams are very similar. Both are powered by underclassmen as BCC's top three players are all sophomores, including 4A South All-Division players Caroline Orza (1st team) and Ava Haraldsson (2nd team). Clarksburg is led by star freshman point guard Mia Smith (1st team), junior Miki Howson (1st team) and sophomore Kaleah Boykin (2nd team) who were All-Division in 4A West. Both teams knocked off their respective players of the year in the section finals. Ultimately, however, BCC's run defeating Whitman and Churchill back to back is as impressive as any in the postseason in a number of years. BCC has done a really great job on defense in the playoffs and that is the difference.
BCC defeats Clarksburg 55-50
4A West Region Section 1 Standings
3. BCC - 66.67% (14-7)
SECTION FINAL RESULT: BCC defeats Churchill 58-57 in OT
4A West Region Section 2 Standings
1. Clarksburg - 75.00% (15-5)
SECTION FINAL RESULT: Clarksburg defeats RM 46-45
4A North Region Final on Saturday, March 9
2. Paint Branch - 85.00% (17-3)
SECTION FINAL RESULT: Paint Branch defeats Blair 73-38
3A West Section 1 Standings
1. Westminster - 75.00% (15-5)
Rockville's magical season came to an end in Carroll County. The Rams stayed within 10 of a excellent team before having to foul at the end. Rockville's top players are all underclassmen and they have a bright future with Coach Gretchen Gregg.
PREDICTION: Frederick is one of the top teams in the state, regardless of classification, and the top team in 3A West. They host the region final and will defeat Westminster by at least 15.
2A West Section 2 Standings
1. Middletown - 90.90% (20-2)
SECTION FINAL RESULT: Middletown defeats Poolesville 44-32
Give a lot of credit to Middletown, who emerged from one of the toughest sections in MPSSAA. Middletown defeated a very good Walkersville team for the 3rd time and then knocked off defending 2A State Champion Poolesville, earning a little payback for their loss to Poolesville in the section final last year. Middletown earned the right to play Oakdale, the other top team in Frederick County, for the 2A West Region title. Both of these teams are very familiar with each other as Middletown beat Oakdale by 19 points at Middletown, and then Oakdale returned the favor to defeat Middletown by 1 at home. Since both teams have the same record, there was a coin flip which determined that Oakdale will host the region final on Saturday night at 7 pm.
PREDICTION: Middletown defeats Oakdale 55-52
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